At 8am ET Wednesday, large Hurricane Irene was located in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean about 335 miles south-southwest of Nassau, which is also approximately 513 miles east-southeast of Miami, Florida.
Irene strengthened overnight and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph, making Irene a major Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain favorable for intensification.
Irene is still moving west-northwest near 9 mph, but a turn to the northwest is expected to occur today as the storm is steered between high pressure in the Atlantic and high pressure over the southern U.S. Computer models remain in agreement and continue to shift east.
Based on the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Irene should move across the entire Bahamas Island chain today and Thursday. The center of Irene is then forecast to move north, passing east of the Florida Peninsula on Friday before moving very close to the U.S. Mid-Atlantic seaboard this weekend. Even if the center of Irene stays well offshore, rain bands associated with the storm may affect coastal areas of eastern Florida Thursday night into Friday morning.
Tropical storm force winds extend as far as 205 miles from the center of Irene. The chances for tropical storm force winds along the eastern Florida Peninsula are decreasing and are now between 20% and 30% between Daytona Beach and Ocean Reef, with the remainder of the Florida Peninsula at 20% or less chance of receiving tropical storm force winds. Hurricane force wind probabilities are now 1% or less for all of Florida.
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for marine interests in Florida coastal waters from Flagler Beach to Ocean Reef for the possibility of tropical storm force winds over the waters, mainly beyond 15 nautical miles offshore, on Thursday and early Friday as Irene passes roughly 200-250 miles east of Florida. Tropical storm force wind gusts are possible within 10 nautical miles. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the offshore waters (20-60nm) from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet.
There are no watches in effect for land areas across Central or South Florida and no part of Florida is within the 3 day error cone.
In addition, ocean swells from Irene may begin to affect the Florida East Coast beginning tomorrow and continuing through Friday. These swells may produce high waves between 7 and 12 feet near shore and 20-25 feet over the offshore waters. Large battering waves could pose a threat to vulnerable piers and cause beach erosion along portions of the Florida coastline.
Further east, two tropical waves remain in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The southern wave near the Cape Verde Islands is increasing in organization. The National Hurricane Center has a 50% chance of development through the next 48 hours. The northern wave is diminishing and has a 0% chance of development.
More information on Hurricane Irene can be found on the National Hurricane Center's website at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Showing posts with label bahamas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bahamas. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Tropical Storm Emily Forms
As of 8am Tuesday, Tropical Storm Emily, the 5th named storm of the 2011 Hurricane Season, was located 245 miles SE of Puerto Rico, which is also 1,265 miles southeast of Miami, Florida.
Although it is too early to tell if Emily will directly impact Florida, there is 20-30% chance that tropical storm winds may reach the East Central and Southeast Florida coastline by Sunday. The rest of the Florida Peninsula has a 10-20% chance of tropical storm force winds while the Florida Big Bend has less than a 10% chance.
Currently, there are no watches or warnings issued for the Florida coastline. The National Hurricane Center shows Emily moving across the northeastern Caribbean Sea today, impacting Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti) later on Wednesday, then may curve northwest toward the Bahamas by Friday.
It could gradually strengthen. It only has a 12% chance of reaching hurricane strength before making landfall in Hispaniola Wednesday. Some computer models show the system moving towards the west while others show becoming stronger and curving north through the Bahamas. Winds are currently near 40 mph and may gradually strengthen. Over the next 48 hours its interaction with land will likely weaken the system. In addition, dry air could surround it, limiting its strength. There is a 20% chance of strengthening into a hurricane by Sunday.
Additional information on Tropical Storm Emily can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Although it is too early to tell if Emily will directly impact Florida, there is 20-30% chance that tropical storm winds may reach the East Central and Southeast Florida coastline by Sunday. The rest of the Florida Peninsula has a 10-20% chance of tropical storm force winds while the Florida Big Bend has less than a 10% chance.
Currently, there are no watches or warnings issued for the Florida coastline. The National Hurricane Center shows Emily moving across the northeastern Caribbean Sea today, impacting Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti) later on Wednesday, then may curve northwest toward the Bahamas by Friday.
It could gradually strengthen. It only has a 12% chance of reaching hurricane strength before making landfall in Hispaniola Wednesday. Some computer models show the system moving towards the west while others show becoming stronger and curving north through the Bahamas. Winds are currently near 40 mph and may gradually strengthen. Over the next 48 hours its interaction with land will likely weaken the system. In addition, dry air could surround it, limiting its strength. There is a 20% chance of strengthening into a hurricane by Sunday.
Additional information on Tropical Storm Emily can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
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