As of 8am Tuesday, Tropical Storm Emily, the 5th named storm of the 2011 Hurricane Season, was located 245 miles SE of Puerto Rico, which is also 1,265 miles southeast of Miami, Florida.
Although it is too early to tell if Emily will directly impact Florida, there is 20-30% chance that tropical storm winds may reach the East Central and Southeast Florida coastline by Sunday. The rest of the Florida Peninsula has a 10-20% chance of tropical storm force winds while the Florida Big Bend has less than a 10% chance.
Currently, there are no watches or warnings issued for the Florida coastline. The National Hurricane Center shows Emily moving across the northeastern Caribbean Sea today, impacting Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti) later on Wednesday, then may curve northwest toward the Bahamas by Friday.
It could gradually strengthen. It only has a 12% chance of reaching hurricane strength before making landfall in Hispaniola Wednesday. Some computer models show the system moving towards the west while others show becoming stronger and curving north through the Bahamas. Winds are currently near 40 mph and may gradually strengthen. Over the next 48 hours its interaction with land will likely weaken the system. In addition, dry air could surround it, limiting its strength. There is a 20% chance of strengthening into a hurricane by Sunday.
Additional information on Tropical Storm Emily can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.
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