Possible Formation of Tropical Cyclone Could Bring Heavy Rains This Weekend

Thunderstorm and shower activity associated with a broad low pressure disturbance over the eastern Gulf of Mexico has slowly organized today. As a result, the National Hurricane Center has indicated a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

Currents in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will likely steer the system northward. Computer models are forecasting that the low will move slowly north over the day or two before moving inland over northern Florida.  While most models show this disturbance stays weak due to some dry air and moderate wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico, there is a chance that wind shear will weaken in the region over the next 24-48 hours which may provide a small window of opportunity for the disturbance to further organize before moving inland.

Regardless, tropical moisture from this system will help generate some much needed rainfall across the state through the weekend.

Always remember additional information on flooding can be found at:

• Florida Health's website (when wells are affected), and
• National Flood Insurance Program's website.