Monday, October 18, 2010

Straight from Pasco County's Emergency Manager, Jim Martin

Here is the latest on the tropics. We still have 43 days remaining in the 2010 Hurricane Season.

* A low pressure system located in the southwestern Caribbean Sea just east of the Nicaragua/Honduras border, or about 680 miles south of Key West, Florida, continues to produce disorganized, but increasing, shower and thunderstorm activity.

* Atmospheric conditions are favorable for development and the National Hurricane Center is indicating a 30% chance that this disturbance will become a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next two days. The next name in the list is Richard.

* Steering currents in the Caribbean Sea are weak and computer models are in disagreement with the intensity and track of the system.

* The majority of the models suggest that this system may not even reach tropical storm intensity and will move slowly inland or scrape along the coast. However, some models suggest that the system may gain some strength as it stays over the water or re-emerges into the Caribbean around mid-week.

* Hurricane Hunters are tentatively scheduled to investigate the system Tuesday afternoon.
* Elsewhere in the tropics, a tropical wave in the east-central Atlantic has a 10% chance of development within the next 2 days.
* Additional information can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

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